The Mandalorian & Grogu (Lucasfilm - 2026 Theatrical)

[mickEblu]

If the trailers don't improve, we are looking between The Clone Wars theatrical release and Solo. I really don't think it will better than Solo. KK has killed too much good will.

Sheesh is it that bad? lol. I haven’t seen the trailer in a while. Now that you mention it, I remember thinking it didn’t look great but chopped it up to just being bad editing or a bad trailer if I recall correctly.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I mean that’s the result they want for the show right? So why not the movie? So to be clear you don’t think it’s going to be profitable?

I don’t think eeking out a meager box office profit is where that franchise is at right now…
But there’s really no way to trust the leadership now either.
Big problems

 

[mickEblu]

I don’t think eeking out a meager box office profit is where that franchise is at right now…
But there’s really no way to trust the leadership now either.
Big problems

I just know it’ll be profitable. I wouldn’t be surprised if it does fairly well but I also wouldn’t be surprised if it only makes a modest profit. That will depend on word of mouth and how good it is.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I just know it’ll be profitable. I wouldn’t be surprised if it does fairly well but I also wouldn’t be surprised if it only makes a modest profit. That will depend on word of mouth and how good it is.

Well of all the reasons Disney bought LFL…it’s logical to think box office receipts are rather low…all things considered.

It’s been a cross sell juggernaut for decades…and the diminished draw really is an issue.

Rudderless…I would call it.

 

[mickEblu]

Well of all the reasons Disney bought LFL…it’s logical to think box office receipts are rather low…all things considered.

It’s been a cross sell juggernaut for decades…and the diminished draw really is an issue.

Rudderless…I would call it.

Yeah definitely not arguing they’ve been the best steward of the Star Wars brand. But then again I’m not sure if that’s possible by any studio considering the sheer amount of content they decided to pump out. That’s the main issue IMO. Quality over quantity. Not sure any studio would have shown the restraint required in the streaming era to not milk the Golden Goose to death.

 

[Tha Realest]

Solo debuted to $147.5M worldwide, finished a little shy of $400M.

I don’t know if it clears the first number, but possibly the second if it’s good?

One problem - it’ll be over three years since we last saw these two characters. Their story didn’t end on a cliffhanger (the opposite, actually).

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Solo debuted to $147.5M worldwide, finished a little shy of $400M.

I don’t know if it clears the first number, but possibly the second if it’s good?

One problem - it’ll be over three years since we last saw these two characters. Their story didn’t end on a cliffhanger (the opposite, actually).

I think that’s why they’re conveying it as a gimmick for 8 year olds. There really wasn’t a story that could or needed to be told after?

 

[Phroobar]

Sheesh is it that bad? lol. I haven’t seen the trailer in a while. Now that you mention it, I remember thinking it didn’t look great but chopped it up to just being bad editing or a bad trailer if I recall correctly.

The Tauntaun beer commercial wasn't a highlight.

Even though I would really love a Chistmas Tauntaun sleigh. It's sooo Holiday Special.

 

[Phroobar]

Solo debuted to $147.5M worldwide, finished a little shy of $400M.

I don’t know if it clears the first number, but possibly the second if it’s good?

One problem - it’ll be over three years since we last saw these two characters. Their story didn’t end on a cliffhanger (the opposite, actually).

Solo made $393M on a budget of $330M. I'm seeing Mando doing worst on a similar budget.

 

[Disney Irish]

Solo made $393M on a budget of $330M. I'm seeing Mando doing worst on a similar budget.

Except the budget estimates are at least half that, coming in at $166M.

It would have to be a really bad movie for it to come in on the same multiplier as Solo, that would be a $200ish WW box office, and I just don't see that happening. But if it matches the box office gross of Solo that is within profitability range for its budget.

So the hope is that it does better than that, we won't have to wait that much longer to see.

 

[MarvelCharacterNerd]

If you ask a Mando/Grogu fan "what are you particularly excited about?" with regard to this movie, I do wonder what they say. I'm asking this earnestly.

I'm excited about seeing this the day it comes out on Disney+.

 

[Nevermore525]

Except the budget estimates are at least half that, coming in at $166M.

It’s a slight uptick from a season of Mandalorian, first two seasons were $100-120M, season 3 was closer to $150M direct to D+.

Instead of going direct to D+ like it may have previously for around this cost it’s getting revenue from a theatrical release before revenue from streaming.

 

[Phroobar]

It’s a slight uptick from a season of Mandalorian, first two seasons were $100-120M, season 3 was closer to $150M direct to D+.

Instead of going direct to D+ like it may have previously for around this cost it’s getting revenue from a theatrical release before revenue from streaming.

I can't see them making this movie for less than $250M considering Solo cost $330M. Lilo & Stitch was $100M and that was a made for streaming project.

 

[Nevermore525]

I can't see them making this movie for less than $250M considering Solo cost $330M. Lilo & Stitch was $100M and that was a made for streaming project.

Reported budget so far is $166M. If a lot of the filming was done in the volume vs having multiple sites that can keep costs down vs other projects. Solo also was expensive because of reshoots when they changed directors to Ron Howard after a decent portion of it was filmed.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

One problem - it’ll be over three years since we last saw these two characters. Their story didn’t end on a cliffhanger (the opposite, actually).

All I remember about season 3 is Jack Black, Lizzo, and Mando giving the girl Mando the dark saber so she could lead the Mandalorians… was there something after that that was supposed to set up the movie/season 4?

Probably not a great sign for the box office when it’s been so long since the last season the fans who watched it can’t even remember what happened.

 

[Disney Irish]

All I remember about season 3 is Jack Black, Lizzo, and Mando giving the girl Mando the dark saber so she could lead the Mandalorians… was there something after that that was supposed to set up the movie/season 4?

Probably not a great sign for the box office when it’s been so long since the last season the fans who watched it can’t even remember what happened.

None of the seasons really ended on a cliff hanger to setup any future season or movie. They were all meant to be self contained so just in case each was the final season it had what seemed like a natural ending. Of course they kept thru-line story arcs, like Mando getting Grogu back to the Jedi, etc., but overall each season could have been have been the finale.

So I expect that the movie picks up where the show left off, which was Din and Grogu settling down on a "homestead" (Din training Grogu to be a Mandalorian) and getting called back into some adventure because someone is back after Grogu.

I also fully expect that the movie and Ahsoka season 2 converge as well.

 

[Phroobar]

Reported budget so far is $166M. If a lot of the filming was done in the volume vs having multiple sites that can keep costs down vs other projects. Solo also was expensive because of reshoots when they changed directors to Ron Howard after a decent portion of it was filmed.

At that reported budget, it sounds like a glorified episode.

 

[Nevermore525]

At that reported budget, it sounds like a glorified episode.

Which essentially is what it is. In lieu of doing Season 4 direct to D+, this movie is being created and released in theaters. So rather than slightly less costs and get whatever from streaming revenue, they get added box office revenue.

 

[Phroobar]

 

[MarvelCharacterNerd]

All I remember about season 3 is Jack Black, Lizzo, and Mando giving the girl Mando the dark saber so she could lead the Mandalorians… was there something after that that was supposed to set up the movie/season 4?

Probably not a great sign for the box office when it’s been so long since the last season the fans who watched it can’t even remember what happened.

Which was unfortunately the issue with Ahsoka, too - both that show and season 3 of Mando were direct sequels to storylines from Filoni's animated shows. And if you didn't watch those, why would you care about these seemingly random characters picking up a story you don't know?

Conversely, if you watched the animated shows, it was cool to see the sequels to those storylines. But the question is - were more viewers interested in animated show sequels or the continuing adventures of Mando & Grogu? And if the latter, those would seem to have been derailed by the former, thus losing momentum for a potentially larger group of viewers.