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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

Disney Analyst

Disney Analyst

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
TP2000 said:
I completely understand that. But how do you quantify it?

Disney+ made $1.3 Billion in profit in fiscal 2025. How do you split that up amongst the 20 or so movies Disney moved from theatrical to streaming in 2025? How much of that $1.3 Billion did Rachel Zegler's Snow White make on Disney+ after it's $200+ Million loss at the box office? How much money did Zootopia 2 make on Disney+ after it's $600+ Million profit at the box office?

How do you track it all financially, and where is that information found?

If there is a source for that streaming data for each film, it seems like it would need its own thread. Because it's not Box Office.



No one has been as transparent as I have that I'm not an expert at any of this. The TP2000 Global Command Center has seven semi-Animatronic figures that only move from the waist up (there's a few good jokes about my Love Life there), a dozen panels of blinky lights, and some 27 inch TV screens that just show wavy lines and the occasional crashing Gooney Bird. Plus our pre-show hostess, Connie, who isn't much for conversation but looks great in her polyester jumpsuit.

And darnit, we try hard!

View attachment 915915

I rarely even go to the movies, and the last few movies I've been to haven't been from Burbank's campus. But the data is out there, and it's easy to use.

If I'm using the wrong Box Office data, please let me know where the real Box Office data is being kept. I'll use that, instead.

The Numbers - Where Data and the Movie Business Meet

The Numbers provides detailed movie financial analysis, including box office, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, and release schedules.
www.the-numbers.com www.the-numbers.com
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It certainly isn’t tracked publicly. Here’s what I think we know and don’t know:

- Disney reports aggregate Disney+ revenue and margins

- Individual film streaming performance is calculated internally using proprietary allocation models (based on watch hours, completion rates, etc.)

- These internal numbers are never fully disclosed

- The theatrical loss on Snow White and the streaming “cost” of acquiring it are separate P&L items, but we don’t see either one broken out

- The only way to infer anything is to look at aggregate trends: if Disney+ margins improve after adding theatrical films, that suggests the strategy is working overall—but you can’t attribute it to specific titles

So in the end we don’t really have any specific data on specific titles, because that data isn’t public. Any discussion on whether any film or show made money on streaming is based on inference and internal studio math that we’ll never see.
 
Mr. Engagement

Mr. Engagement

Well-Known Member
Disney Analyst said:
It certainly isn’t tracked publicly. Here’s what I think we know and don’t know:

- Disney reports aggregate Disney+ revenue and margins

- Individual film streaming performance is calculated internally using proprietary allocation models (based on watch hours, completion rates, etc.)

- These internal numbers are never fully disclosed

- The theatrical loss on Snow White and the streaming “cost” of acquiring it are separate P&L items, but we don’t see either one broken out

- The only way to infer anything is to look at aggregate trends: if Disney+ margins improve after adding theatrical films, that suggests the strategy is working overall—but you can’t attribute it to specific titles

So in the end we don’t really have any specific data on specific titles, because that data isn’t public. Any discussion on whether any film or show made money on streaming is based on inference and internal studio math that we’ll never see.
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And don't forget @TP2000 's Halloween costume metric.
 
TP2000

TP2000

Well-Known Member
coffeefan said:
Why are baby boomers killing movie theaters? ;)

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Was there ever an era in American history of the last 100 years when 65+ year olds were driving movie attendance?

I can't think of one. And without Googling it, I'd wager a bet of two Churros that there never was an era like that.

Movies have always been driven by younger folks; teenagers onn date nights, or college kids out with friends, or 30somethings taking their young children to Walt Disney's latest release. Or at best, a 40 year old couple hiring a baby sitter in 1970 and going out on a Saturday night to see Dean Martin and Jacqueline Bisset in Airport.

But older people over age 65? Driving attendance en masse to the American Box Office? When has that ever happened since sound was introduced to movies 99 years ago in 1927? 🤔
 
TP2000

TP2000

Well-Known Member
Disney Analyst said:
It certainly isn’t tracked publicly. Here’s what I think we know and don’t know:

- Disney reports aggregate Disney+ revenue and margins

- Individual film streaming performance is calculated internally using proprietary allocation models (based on watch hours, completion rates, etc.)

- These internal numbers are never fully disclosed

- The theatrical loss on Snow White and the streaming “cost” of acquiring it are separate P&L items, but we don’t see either one broken out

- The only way to infer anything is to look at aggregate trends: if Disney+ margins improve after adding theatrical films, that suggests the strategy is working overall—but you can’t attribute it to specific titles

So in the end we don’t really have any specific data on specific titles, because that data isn’t public. Any discussion on whether any film or show made money on streaming is based on inference and internal studio math that we’ll never see.
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I agree with all of that, because it's all basic fact.

I think perhaps the sound thing to do would be to take the profit/loss of Disney+ in each fiscal year and subtract/add it to the profit/loss of Burbank's entire stable of movie studios and their global Box Office performance that fiscal year.

You could then get at least a basic dollar figure for how much their artistic offerings made or loss that year, in total.
 
Baloo124

Baloo124

Well-Known Member
Serpico Jones said:
Click to expand...

What a ridiculous strategy for 4 and 5.
"We have been nailing it with our first 3 films. Audiences love them, they take the box office by storm each time... and they're raking in the $$$...
so we obviously need to scale it back and go much cheaper. It's what the people want"
:facepalm:

Can you imagine how ridiculous this tactic would sound literally anywhere else?

"It's halftime and we're up 21-10, so we need to start slowing things down a bit and quit pushing so hard going forward."

"Our candidate is up in the polls by over 5% with less than two months to go before the election. Now's the time to cut back on all campaign ad spending..."
 
BlindChow

BlindChow

Well-Known Member
Baloo124 said:
What a ridiculous strategy for 4 and 5.
"We have been nailing it with our first 3 films. Audiences love them, they take the box office by storm each time... and they're raking in the $$$...
so we obviously need to scale it back and go much cheaper. It's what the people want"
:facepalm:
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They haven't been "nailing it." They've made less money with each subsequent installment, and they are ridiculously expensive films. It makes sense to scale back costs, especially on their current revenue trajectory.
 
D

DKampy

Well-Known Member
TP2000 said:
I agree with all of that, because it's all basic fact.

I think perhaps the sound thing to do would be to take the profit/loss of Disney+ in each fiscal year and subtract/add it to the profit/loss of Burbank's entire stable of movie studios and their global Box Office performance that fiscal year.

You could then get at least a basic dollar figure for how much their artistic offerings made or loss that year, in total.
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Even then we still don’t know the profits from PVOD…. Those higher price rental prices (usually $20)…which the studios keep almost all the profits…. They must do ok with that…. As most studios seem anxious for that bucket… except for Disney…. My guess Disney has not seen a noticeable difference iwhen they release films there… and that bucket is still waiting for them
 
TP2000

TP2000

Well-Known Member
Baloo124 said:
What a ridiculous strategy for 4 and 5.
"We have been nailing it with our first 3 films. Audiences love them, they take the box office by storm each time... and they're raking in the $$$...
so we obviously need to scale it back and go much cheaper. It's what the people want"
:facepalm:

Can you imagine how ridiculous this tactic would sound literally anywhere else?

"It's halftime and we're up 21-10, so we need to start slowing things down a bit and quit pushing so hard going forward."

"Our candidate is up in the polls by over 5% with less than two months to go before the election. Now's the time to cut back on all campaign ad spending..."
Click to expand...

Avatar 1, 2009: Production Budget $237 Million, Global Box Office $2.93 Billion = $1.169 Billion Profit
Avatar 2, 2022: Production Budget $400 Million, Global Box Office $2.32 Billion = $660 Million Profit
Avatar 3, 2025: Production Budget $400 Million, Global Box Office $1.48 Billion = $240 Million Profit

And there's two more Avatar movies in the pipeline with the same obscene $400 Million production budgets? o_O

Also, take into account there are virtually no Avatar toy or clothing or merchandise sales of any kind, unlike things like Pixar's Cars or Disney's Princess lines, and I've never seen a single Blue Alien at my front door on October 31st ever since 2009.

Disney is trying to walk back decisions to put Avatar into the parks, namely Disneyland, since the 2009 success doesn't seem to be able to be repeated and there's almost no merchandise sales for the Avatar franchise.

It's a smart move by Josh D'Amaro, who has his own children who were growing up in the 2010's and 20's, so he knows the pop-culture impact of Avatar, or lack thereof in this case.
 
N

Nevermore525

Well-Known Member
MisterPenguin

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
TP2000 said:
Disney is trying to walk back decisions to put Avatar into the parks, namely Disneyland, since the 2009 success doesn't seem to be able to be repeated and there's almost no merchandise sales for the Avatar franchise.
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That's just a second hand rumor which you just announced as if it were the six o'clock news.

Knock it off.
 
BrianLo

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
TP2000 said:
I completely understand that. But how do you quantify it?

Disney+ made $1.3 Billion in profit in fiscal 2025. How do you split that up amongst the 20 or so movies Disney moved from theatrical to streaming in 2025? How much of that $1.3 Billion did Rachel Zegler's Snow White make on Disney+ after it's $200+ Million loss at the box office? How much money did Zootopia 2 make on Disney+ after it's $600+ Million profit at the box office?
Click to expand...

It’s better to conceptualize the 1.3B as money Disney Plus/Hulu itself makes for the effort of running an online service. None of that money is transferred to studio films.

On the other hand Disney makes 25B in revenue (mostly from subscription fees, but also somewhat from advertising) and then it spends somewhere between 12-15B on content itself. That’s the pool of money that studios films are receiving transfers from. At the same time that sounds more impressive than it is, because studio films are still just a drop in the bucket. It tends to work out to 100-200M per film. On the low end if the film is anemic and higher if it’s an over performer. Of course if the film still plays well it will continue to run up that tally well beyond that.

I’d imagine Snow is on the low end and will not run up a tally. But Zoo 2 will continue on and on for a decade.


You are right that correlation is a box office is generally predictive of the backend. Though Disney clearly has exceptions to that rule, but we can usually spot what ones those are in the Nielsen numbers or merchandising.
 
Baloo124

Baloo124

Well-Known Member
TP2000 said:
I've never seen a single Blue Alien at my front door on October 31st ever since 2009.
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Some of the most successful and beloved franchises in movie history didn't translate to popular Halloween costumes. I don't remember ever seeing a Dr. Alan Grant, or a Katniss Everdeen, or a Frodo Baggins show up at my door.

I'm just not seeing how a $240 million profit, despite the large budget $$, plus a 90%+ audience rating on RT, and all the "best one in the series so far" comments for a 3rd film in a saga is a sign to pump the brakes. The Avatar ship is far from sinking.
 
sedati

sedati

Well-Known Member
I'm a fan of Avatar and had no issue sitting through Fire and Ash. That said, I know a lot of people who are put off by such a long runtime for a theatrical release. Even just shaving it to just under three might make a huge difference. I think that once you cross that line you cut out a swath of your theatrical audience. Better to trim and even better to release an extended for home viewing. Best of both worlds.

Any by all means, build the Avatar land that was shown for DCA. It can be in a different location, but that concept art looked amazing and that ride would be perfect.

I'm all for the Zootopoia land coming to the US. Put it in World Showcase- Disney's grandest and most tired failure. The films are about societies and culture clash. That's where it belongs. In DCA I just think the ride needs to be reworked as it seems to much like Rise and Runaway Railroad.
 

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